SCENARIOS -Myanmar's uncertain post-election future

SCENARIOS -Myanmar's uncertain post-election future Mar 26, 2010
By Martin Petty
http://in.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idINIndia-47236120100326

BANGKOK (Reuters) - Military-ruled Myanmar will hold its first democratic election in two decades later this year, polls that critics say will be a sham resulting in no significant transfer of power to a civilian government.
The resource-rich country of 48 million people is heading for a period of uncertainty, with concerns about economic and social stability after almost five decades of army rule.
Following are possible post-election scenarios:
COSMETIC CHANGE ONLY, MILITARY RETAINS POWER
Few believe the military will really hand power back to a civilian government. The new constitution guarantees the army 25 percent of parliamentary seats, and junta proxies are expected to run and win plenty more. The military will have jurisdiction over key ministries and reserves the right to take power at a time of national crisis.
Civilians backed, or at least vetted, by the junta will probably be given some government positions, but analysts say the military will still control major policy and budget decisions.
This is the most likely scenario. Analysts say the generals sincerely believe the military is the only institution capable of keeping the country together and therefore want to remain in charge.
GRADUAL TRANSFER TO CIVILIAN CONTROL
In the long term, Myanmar could undergo a gradual transition of power to a civilian government free of military control. This would be an evolutionary process rather than a junta-inspired shift.
Future elections, constitutional amendments and shifts in the power structure or patronage systems could lead to the emergence of splinter groups or factions within the military; some may favour offering a role to experienced, educated technocrats deemed capable of handling the economy, for example.
"The generals may believe they can control political proxies, crony businessmen, military colleagues and ethnic factions ... but in a new context these groups might develop independent agendas," the International Crisis Group said in a report.
PUBLIC REJECTS MILITARY-CONTROLLED GOVERNMENT
Decades of economic mismanagement, human rights abuses and a failure to invest sufficiently in education, health and public services have created deep public resentment of the military.
Nationwide monk-led protests in 2007 triggered by increases in fuel and cooking gas prices stoked public anger. The bloody crackdown that followed showed the junta had no qualms about using force to suppress dissent. However, ordinary people are willing to take that risk, as seen in a recent wave of strikes by garment workers that have rattled the military.
Myanmar's people have been promised big things after the elections. Analysts say they could revolt if a new government fails to deliver the goods.
"DEMOCRACY" FAILS, MILITARY TAKES BACK POWER
The last time elections were held in 1990, the result was unfavourable for the generals and they refused to hand over power. It appears the junta has learned from that and drafted electoral laws that will limit the powers of elected opponents.
However, if the 2010 election process throws up problems, the regime could scrap or indefinitely postpone the polls, citing reasons of national security and stability.
Even if a government and national assembly are in place, a constitutional clause allows the commander-in-chief to dissolve the house and assume power at a time of crisis. If army influence wanes, it could provoke a crisis of its own making as a pretext to wrestle back control.
However, most analysts say the generals won't find this necessary: provisions written into the constitution, drafted mainly by the military, will ensure there is no real threat to the status quo.
(Editing by Alan Raybould and David Fox)